Gold to Reach $4,000 Per Ounce by 2025, as Bybit and FX Street Estimate

Gold is on track to reach an unprecedented $4,000 per ounce by the end of 2025, according to a new report from Bybit and FX Street. The forecast comes as gold recently surged to an all-time high of $3,500 per ounce, outpacing equities and reinforcing its reputation as the world’s premier safe-haven asset.

Gold has climbed 26% so far this year and is up 41% over the past 12 months, while the S&P 500 has fallen by 11%. This sharp contrast highlights gold’s traditional role as a refuge during times of economic uncertainty and market volatility. The report notes that persistent inflation, a weakening US dollar, and disappointing equity returns have created the perfect environment for gold to thrive. As the dollar loses value, gold becomes more attractive to both domestic and international investors.

Geopolitical uncertainty

The report also points to rising geopolitical tensions and tariff-driven uncertainty, especially under US President Trump’s trade policies. Fears of global tariff wars are pushing investors toward gold, which is seen as a “global currency” during periods of economic disruption. Potential tariffs on gold itself, along with recent surges in other commodity prices, are adding to the complexity of the market. As exporters and importers face volatile exchange rates, many are choosing to hold gold instead of more vulnerable currencies like the euro, yen, or yuan.

This shift is also affecting the traditional role of US Treasuries as a safe-haven asset. With tariffs making US imports more expensive and reducing foreign investment in Treasuries, investors are increasingly turning to gold for stability.

Bullish momentum remains strong

From a technical perspective, gold’s rally appears robust. The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator remains positive, and the relative strength index (RSI) stands at 60, suggesting that bullish momentum is still intact. Analysts see $3,500 as the next technical target, with a move toward $4,000 possible by year end if current trends continue.

Technical analysis by Bybit and FX Street. Image credits: Bybit & FX Street.

China’s growing demand

China is playing a major role in supporting gold prices. With a slowing economy and strict capital controls, Chinese investors are buying gold to protect their wealth from a weakening yuan. This surge in demand from China is providing an additional boost to global gold prices and reflects a broader trend in emerging markets, where gold is increasingly seen as a safeguard against economic instability.

Silver: a diversification opportunity

While gold is in the spotlight, the report also highlights silver as an attractive diversification option. Silver remains well below its all-time high of $50, set in 2011, and its historical correlation with gold suggests it could offer significant upside. With industrial demand also supporting prices, silver could benefit from both safe-haven inflows and economic recovery.

Bybit and FX Street’s report concludes that gold’s impressive rise is being driven by a combination of macroeconomic headwinds, geopolitical uncertainty, and strong technical indicators. With positive momentum and strong investor sentiment, gold appears well positioned to continue its ascent, potentially reaching $4,000 per ounce by the end of 2025. For investors seeking to hedge against instability and currency volatility, both gold and silver are likely to remain attractive options in the year ahead.