Open-source software, a cornerstone of modern technology, has been valued at an astonishing 8.8 trillion US dollars, according to a study by Harvard Business School. The research highlights the immense economic impact of open-source programs, which are included in 96 percent of all codebases worldwide. Without these freely available tools, companies would need to spend approximately 3.5 times more on software development.
The study reveals that this massive value is largely attributable to the work of just 3,000 developers, who account for 95 percent of the open-source ecosystem’s supply and demand value. Despite its enormous economic significance, the cost of developing open-source software is relatively modest, estimated at 4.15 billion US dollars.
The economic value of open source
Unlike traditional software, open-source programs are typically free, making it difficult to measure their value through conventional metrics like price and sales. Instead, the researchers calculated two key figures: the supply value, which represents the cost of developing new open-source programs, and the demand value, which reflects the cost companies would incur if they had to create these tools themselves.
The supply value of open-source software is estimated at 4.15 billion US dollars, while the demand value is a staggering 8.8 trillion US dollars—2,000 times higher. For context, global spending on software in 2020 was around 3.4 trillion US dollars.
The study also highlights the uneven distribution of contributions within the open-source community. A small group of developers—around five percent—accounts for 93 percent of the supply value and 96 percent of the demand value. This concentration is attributed to a handful of developers maintaining numerous repositories, underscoring their outsized role in the ecosystem.
Go language leads
The researchers also analyzed the economic value of different programming and markup languages. The Go programming language emerged as the most commercially valuable, with a supply value of 803 million US dollars and a demand value exceeding five trillion US dollars. This demand is more than four times higher than that of JavaScript, which ranks second.
Other languages like Java, C, and Python also contribute significantly to the open-source ecosystem. However, despite Python’s popularity on platforms like GitHub, its supply value is relatively low at 55 million US dollars.
A call to action
The study emphasizes that open-source software is a modern common good, warning against its overuse without adequate contributions from companies. Given its immense economic value, the researchers urge businesses to actively support the development of open-source programs. They also call on policymakers to promote open-source projects, recognizing their critical role in the global economy.
The findings echo sentiments expressed at the FOSS Backstage Conference, where experts like Max Mehl from DB Systel highlighted the importance of open source in commercial software development. As open-source software continues to underpin technological innovation, its value—and the need to sustain it—has never been clearer.
